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Thursday, June 16, 2011

J'son & Partners Consulting: the Russian market 4G

Consulting company company J'son & Partners Consulting presented the main results of an updated study of the Russian market 4G (mobile WiMAX technology and LTE), monitored by the company since 2009.

According to J'son & Partners Consulting, the market for mobile WiMAX, which actually began its development in Russia in June 2009, in 2010, has grown in cash terms by 3.3 times and amounted to about 4 billion rubles. The subscriber base of mobile WiMAX in Russia has reached the end of 2010 about 800 thousand, the main contribution being made the company "Scartel" (brand name Yota), which accounted for about 94% of the market.

In Q1 2011 there was a stagnation of the market, due, mainly, from cessation of regional expansion Yota for refocusing on technology LTE, changes in tariff policy and market saturation in geographic areas of presence of the operator. The number of active subscribers decreased from 757,000 to 731,500, revenues from services provided slightly (0.6%) increased compared with the previous quarter.

Despite the cessation of active growth of the market in Q1 2011, J'son & Partners Consulting expects revival of mobile WiMAX, associated with activation of new players designed to actively expand its regional expansion. In delay the introduction of LTE mobile WiMAX in Russia is the most advanced technology, conventionally related to the fourth generation mobile communication (4G). In the future, should expect more later - Mobile WiMAX 2 (IEEE 802.16m), which will increase the capacity of wireless networks in several times. Strategically correct for operators of mobile WiMAX, according to J'son & Partners Consulting, will focus on those regions that, for whatever reason are deficient wired broadband connections. And with each new deployment of mobile WiMAX network operators should carefully consider the possible scenario of transition to technology TD-LTE.

LTE is the most promising technology like mobile broadband in Russia and abroad. In a world already created two dozen commercial networks LTE, and the active dissemination of this technology continues.

Chipset manufacturers, in particular, in the near future promises to bring to market the LTE-solutions with multi-band technology for LTE, and for technologies UMTS, as well as support for EV-DO.

In Russia, the introduction of LTE is delayed, mainly because of regulatory restrictions and the unavailability of frequencies to operators. The most likely candidate for "pioneer" LTE networks in Russia J'son & Partners Consulting highlights the company "Scartel," which voiced its plans to develop LTE as early as 2010 Yota is required for this frequency resource in the range of 2.5 GHz and a favorable scenario may develop commercial LTE network to the end of 2011

March 3, 2011 LLC "Scartel" signed an agreement with the "big three" mobile operators and "Rostelecom" the development of LTE in Russia. The agreement was held at the Moscow office Yota in the presence of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Under the agreement, participants in the transaction will have access to the network infrastructure 4G mobile communication company "Scartel" and options to purchase shares in the Yota on the market price in 2014

Despite the fact that to date the "big three" mobile operators, "Rostelecom" and Yota has not been able to negotiate a partnership to develop communication 4G, support from top officials of the country significantly increases the chances Yota to launch LTE network in 2011-2012 gg. This, in particular, by the return of "Scartel" additional frequency resource, which expands the available range of the operator up to 70 MHz, allowing you to create full-featured network LTE.

RF Government of 21.01.11 № 57-p are defined frequency band for advanced radio technologies, including LTE, and the dates of competition in specific regions. It is important to note that the operators have the option of choosing technology in the received frequency range (eg between LTE TDD and WiMAX, LTE FDD and HSPA FDD), which can be viewed as a move towards technological neutrality. However, said document the dates of competitions - 2014-2015. - Do not allow us to hope that the LTE market will come a lot of players, and it will become widespread.

Nevertheless, J'son & Partners Consulting predicts that by the end of the first year of commercial operation in Russia, there would be up to 300 thousand subscribers in LTE, and the end of 2015 with a favorable scenario, the market volume could reach up to 9 million this scenario also provides By the end of 2014 in 180 cities in Russia will be built up to 20 thousand base stations LTE. More conservative scenario envisages an increase in subscriber base before LTE 3.7 million by the end of the sixth year of commercial operation.

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