* Status of the LED industry “SLI 2010”, 2008-2020 analysis.
* LED Manufacturing Technologies “LED ManTech 2010”
This comprehensive survey describes the main market metrics and manufacturing technologies implementing broad adoption of Solid State Lighting.
The packaged LED market is experiencing tremendous growth with an expected CAGR of 28.2 percent between 2009 and 2015. In our base scenario, revenues will reach $8.9 billion in 2010 and grow to $25.7 billion in 2015 and close to $30 billion in 2020.
In terms of volume, LED die surface will increase from 6.3b mm2 to 51b mm2 in 2015, a 41.6 percent CAGR. This will prompt substrate volumes to growth from 12.7M TIE (Two Inch Equivalent) in 2009 to 84.4M TIE in 2015, a 37.1 percent CAGR (smaller than the die surface increase due to significant manufacturing yield improvements). The equipment market will experiment a dramatic growth cycle with demand driving the installation of close to 1400 reactors in the 2010-2012 period.
“Anticipation of future demand and generous subsidies in China will trigger the installation of another 700-1000 reactors in the same period, leading to a short period of oversupply starting in late 2011. However, this oversupply will mostly affect the low end of the market,” explains Tom Pearsall, EPIC.
Growth in general lighting applications will be enabled by significant technology and manufacturing efficiency improvements that will help to lower the cost per lumen of packaged LED to be reduced 10 fold between 2010 and 2020: Economies of scale, LED efficiency improvement, including at high power (droop effect), Improved phosphors, Improved packaging technologies, Significant improvements in LED epitaxy cost of ownership through yield and throughput. However, additional breathoughs are needed; Haitz’s Law is not enough.
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